Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the nation and caused disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. They composes two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
